"From the schedule that Microsoft seems to be operating on, that looks right," said Michael Cherry, an analyst with Kirkland, Wash.-based Directions on Microsoft. If they have Release Candidate 1 before Labor Day weekend, and then Release To Manufacturing by Halloween, then they have the 30 days of November to get it to volume license customers. And from Oct. 30 would be about 90 days to the end of January. "That's about right" for what it takes to get Windows Vista into the channel, Cherry said.
Amazon's Sundwall said that, unlike the Vista's prices, the availability date was "our own estimate of when we think Vista will ship." The date, however, was based on talks with Microsoft as well as others.
"I don't know if that date is right or not," said Wilcox. "But if it is, that's one of the worst times of the year, sales-wise, for PCs. Late January is one of the slowest times of the year."
Cherry, however, is betting that the end of January is on the mark. "One thing that makes January likely is that Microsoft could use the Consumer Electronics Show," which runs from Jan. 8 through Jan. 11, "to throw a big party and make a splash, maybe even start a pre-sales campaign." The fact that Vista won't be ready to ship to retail or be included with on-the-shelf PCs by then doesn't mean Microsoft can't host a blow-out at CES, said Cherry. "In this business, you can have meaningless events because they scale well. Frankly my expectation is that Microsoft will have the bits finished before the end of the year."
In fact, Cherry added, it's crucial for Microsoft to get Vista out the door. And not for the reasons others have cited, such as beating Apple's Mac OS X 10.5 (Leopard) to market.
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