Air Time: 3G and Smartphones: Skeptical Optimism: Page 2 of 2

Occasionally, I'll run into someone who accesses Web-based services on a
smartphone. My son Dan is a sports junkie and uses his Sidekick to check scores
and game summaries, bravely enduring the limitations of GPRS connectivity. I've
found myself mobile-googling on occasion during a meeting, a practice that has
sometimes allowed me to provide a relatively quick answer to a question. Probably
my most indispensable Web application is the local weather radar, which I've used
while navigating the streets of Manhattan sans umbrella, on my boat as a storm
approaches and to impress people at a baseball game, where I can second-guess the
umpire's decision to call the game because of rain.

Don't get the wrong impression. I am not a total cynic. I believe mobile computing
devices, and smartphones in particular, have a bright future. We look back on those
old first-generation PCs and chuckle about their limited capabilities. The same will
hold true for this generation of mobile device technology. The devices themselves
will rapidly mature, with enhanced interfaces and improved wireless connectivity,
and the applications and content will also improve as the critical mass of smart
devices increases -- as it surely will. Entertainment will play an increasing role in
making this happen, spurred in large part by innovative business models like the
ESPN Mobile service that is sure to attract sports fans like my son. We'll also see
inherent improvements in the devices themselves as well as the backend servers
and applications that allow for the easy delivery of content to these devices. And
video distribution technologies, made possible by a range of digital broadcast
technologies, will ignite broader interest.

Attendees at 3GSM will be getting a feel for the future this week. It won't happen
over night, but it will happen.