Network Computing is part of the Informa Tech Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

Microsoft Needs To Go Nimble After Vista: Page 2 of 3

"Web 2.0 makes it less important which operating system you choose. It could level the playing field [between OSes]", he says.

Central to Silver's argument -- and others who say Microsoft must become more agile -- is that Web-based applications, even the entire ecosystem, can change much faster than the time it typically takes Microsoft to come up with a new operating system. From start to finish, including a massive restart, Vista was in the lab for five years.

Microsoft doesn't have that much time before the pendulum swings against it, says Silver.

"Today, about 70% to 80% of enterprise applications are Windows specific," Silver says. "But new applications are increasingly OS-agnostic. Sometime in 2011 we'll hit the equilibrium, when half are Windows and half are Web-based."

The tipping point for consumers is a lot closer. "If you're just doing basic productivity things, I'd argue that the tipping point is already here."