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2003 Survivor's Guide to Mobile and Wireless: Page 7 of 18

In our view, 11g is unlikely to become dominant, though it will play a role. That's because by the end of 2003 you'll be able to purchase commodity WLAN NICs for less than $100 that will support 11b, 11a and 11g, automatically selecting the best system available. And you're also likely to see NICs that combine WLAN radios with 2.5G cellular radios, providing roaming between WLANs and emerging GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) and CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access) 2000 1XRTT wide area cellular systems. The key technical challenges will rest in facilitating rapid and transparent roaming, maintaining security and dealing with the billing issues where commercial wireless networks are involved.

Embedded Wireless Everywhere?

While most people view wireless networking as a system add-on, a notable trend in 2003 will be toward embedded wireless capabilities, particularly in notebooks and PDAs. Informal estimates suggest that approximately 20 percent of enterprise-oriented notebooks purchased in late 2002 were shipped with embedded 802.11b WLAN capabilities. Look for that number to increase to well over 50 percent in 2003, eventually culminating in wireless availability on all high-end systems. From a manufacturing standpoint, companies reach a point where it costs more to leave wireless out than it does to build it in. By early 2003, notebook manufacturers will be able to include integrated 802.11a/802.11b WLAN support for no more than $25 extra. At that price point, most notebook manufacturers will include it, just like they did with Ethernet.