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Industry In Flux: Page 3 of 4

What the predominant operating system underlying new applications will be is another question. The battle between Microsoft's Windows and Linux distributions will be fought for many years and will likely intensify when Microsoft debuts its next-generation Longhorn client and server in 2006 and 2007, respectively. Halting Windows' momentum will be tough, given the enormous resources Microsoft puts into its operating system. (See "A Windows World?")

While componentized apps will make up much of the software landscape of the future, larger and more-complex systems aren't going away. The 50 million lines of code that now make up Windows could double in the Longhorn release. How will the process of developing software be managed, especially as geographically disbursed programmers and offshore developers do an increasing amount of development work? And what challenges await users of the complex applications they create?

It's clear that advanced automation and collaboration capabilities will be critical elements of tomorrow's software-development tools. (See "Get That Team Spirit") "But complexity is an inherent part of our business," IBM's Sabbah says. "The real challenge of our industry is to build software that is [easy to use] and simple to deploy but not simplistic."

Other challenges loom, too, from better securing applications to enhancing the systems that interface with emerging technologies such as radio-frequency identification and voice over IP.

Equally important will be continued changes in vendor-buyer relations and how software functionality gets delivered. Witness the growth of companies such as Salesforce.com Inc. that provide software on a hosted basis. And there's growing demand for "performance-based" pricing, which could shift even more power to software buyers. (See "Share The Load")