All these open-source efforts mean that to some extent Novell's future will depend on the future of Linux and open source in general, both of which look promising.
Oracle and IBM's promotion of Linux (Oracle is marketing it as "unbreakable Linux") is helping to improve comfort and confidence levels in the OS; HP and SAP are also offering strong support. More product innovation is taking place in open source than in any software company. An IDC report shows revenue growth for packaged applications and infrastructure software running on Linux growing at a compound annual rate of 44 percent through 2008. This is perhaps evidenced by the popularity of the open-source Apache Web server and Samba file server. However, Microsoft-sponsored IDC studies have also concluded that at four out of five companies, the TCO is around 11 percent lower for Windows Server than it is for Linux because of implementation, administration, and support costs. Often, companies migrating to Linux are those that need new hardware or software, or need to upgrade storage or security architectures.
A happy omen came for Linux in April, when Adobe and Macromedia announced support for it with their Reader and Flash products. Similar announcements from other software vendors are sure to follow.
IS DESKTOP LINUX VIABLE?
It's hard to compete with Microsoft on the desktop where Windows owns approximately 95 percent market share, and Novell acknowledges that it won't lure corporate America away from Microsoft Windows in this area. Windows has become standard for most companies, and adopting Linux Desktop would mean a painful, large-scale conversion that would be hard to cost-justify--help desk calls alone would quickly eat up the savings of Linux's lower licensing fees.
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