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ShareThe Hidden Value Of iSCSI Networks: Over $500 Million And Growing
Posted by Frank Berry on August 17, 2009
Born in 1685, George Berkeley was an Irish philosopher who created and promoted a theory he called "immaterialism." He talked of objects ceasing to exist once there was nobody around to perceive them, and was famously quoted as asking, "If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears it, did it really fall?"
A possible example of immaterialism is iSCSI networking. While the storage industry loudly acknowledges the presence of iSCSI interface storage, it is eerily silent about how many Ethernet "host" ports and Ethernet "switch" ports are being used to connect servers to iSCSI storage. The industry does count the ports, but they are counted as "generic Ethernet" ports because we have no way of knowing if a data center administrator uses an Ethernet port for data networking (e-mail and management), storage networking (NAS and ISCSI) or server networking (clusters).
So, if Ethernet/iSCSI networking ports get installed in the data center and no one knows it, did they really get installed? Based on the storage industry's focus on Fibre Channel and FcoE, the answer is that if no one was around to perceive the use of Ethernet ports for iSCSI, they ceased to exist.
If the revenue opportunity was small, it wouldn't have been worth researching George Berkeley quotes, but IT Brand Pulse estimates the hidden value of rapidly growing Ethernet / iSCSI storage networking to be well over $500 million in 2009.
IT Brand Pulse gives credit for the rapid growth of iSCSI to Microsoft, who started shipping an iSCSI software driver with Windows in 2003. Six years later, in 2009 the SAN array population is approximately 80% Fibre Channel and 20% iSCSI. About 3 million Fibre Channel adapter ports and 6 million Fibre Channel switch ports will also ship in 2009 to connect those Fibre Channel arrays to servers. If you assume the same number of iSCSI host ports per iSCSI array, there will be 750,000 Ethernet host ports and 1.2 million Ethernet switch ports configured for iSCSI in 2009. An average sales price of $300 per port puts the value of the 1.95 million Ethernet iSCSI host and switch ports at $585 million.
If you're wondering who is getting that new iSCSI networking business, IT Brand Pulse estimates in 2009 about 50,000 of those host ports will be iSCSI HBAs from QLogic and about 700,000 of those iSCSI host ports will be embedded Ethernet chips or add-on adapter cards from Broadcom and Intel. IT Brand Pulse believes the 1.2 million Ethernet / iSCSI switch ports are going to switch vendors that have storage and Ethernet portfolios and that points to Cisco and Brocade.
The current generation of iSCSI storage systems use 1 gigabit Ethernet technology. Next generation iSCSI storage systems incorporate among other things, 10 gigabit Ethernet connections to a storage network. Look for adapter vendors like Emulex to capitalize on this inflection point with a new class of 10 gigabit converged network adapters that support data networking and storage networking including iSCSI. And look for Cisco and Brocade to dominate the market for 10 gigabit storage area networks carrying iSCSI traffic.
How big will this iSCSI networking tree get before someone notices?
Comment by Shaun Walsh, Emulex on August 18, 2009 3:33 PM
Frank,
Is this $300/port for 1Gb or 10Gb for the host Ethernet ports?
Thanks,
Shaun
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Comment by Steve Reichwein, Emulex on August 18, 2009 4:08 PM
Frank,
Good perspective. I'm wondering if the iSCSI proof-point can be found on the storage side. I agree that the server ports are "invisible" to the community. However, iSCSI storage from EqualLogic, EMC AX and CX systems, HP EVAs, plus myriad other small players let us hear the falling tree. Can we determine if it's a sapling or a redwood?
Thanks,
Steve
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Comment by Frank Berry on August 18, 2009 4:33 PM
Shaun, I assumed the ports were 1 Gb. For anyone that wants to and weighted as follows:
- 1. 2M Director / Edge Switch ports x $450 per port
- 500K LOM ports x $5 per port
- 200K NIC ports x $100 port
- 50K iSCSI HBA x $300 per port
If readers have a diiferent cut on this, I'd love to see it.
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Comment by Frank Berry on August 18, 2009 4:54 PM
Steve,
I agree iSCSI storage is the proof point for the large iSCSI networking opportunity because of the direct correlation between the two. Today, the iSCSI networking market has grown to about 20% of the storage neworking market - I'd say that's bigger than a sapling and smaller than a redwood :)
Regards, Frank
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Comment by tom on August 19, 2009 7:28 AM
what is avg. LUN size behind each port? Or, what is the storage volume
behind all these ports?
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Comment by Frank Berry on August 19, 2009 12:22 PM
Tom,
As Steve pointed out above, the storage behind all those ports is "iSCSI storage from EqualLogic (Dell), EMC AX and CX systems, HP EVAs, plus a myriad other small players." As for the average LUN size, I have neither data or an educated guess.
Regards, Frank
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Comment by Anonymous on August 19, 2009 1:33 PM
What complicates the discussion as well is the convergence to Ethernet as a storage fabric. As an example, the #2 leader in iSCSI storage is NetApp (according to IDC). They also support several other protocols from the same storage controller, including FC, iSCSI, NFS, CIFS, and now FCoE. Most customers use the same unified storage system for multiple workloads to simplify backup and recover, DR, and to improve efficiency. Trying to identify revenue or capacity associated with any one protocol is not as straight forward as with vendors that only support one protocol.
The ability to support many protocols offers choice for the customer to use the storage according to changing business priorities without having to buy new hardware. In this context, from a storage standpoint, whichever protocol "wins" becomes less important. However, it will likely run over Ethernet when the dust settles.
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Comment by Frank Berry on August 19, 2009 2:53 PM
Anonymous,
I believe your spot on. In the good 'ol days storage business was asscociated with the Fibre Channel wires that you could count. I talk to other analysts and everyone is struggling with how in the future we will identify workload / business trends that will all share the same Ethernet wire.
Regards, Frank
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Comment by Austin on September 4, 2009 7:17 AM
Nice stats, but I would also like to know a sales of software iSCSI targets. AFAIK sales of StarWind Software, DataCore and other are growing very good, mainly because of cost of such desicions - offering the same functionality software costs less.
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