First Look
Last week, Intel leaked details about its forthcoming Itanium chip, McKinley. Rumored to double existing Itanium performance, the new chip will sport a speedy 3-MB Level-3 cache with 64-GB-per-second bandwidth for Level-2 cache. Interestingly, in support of these niceties, the new processor also will cover 464-square millimeters, making it perhaps the largest chip in its class.
Situation Analysis
The Itanium processor line has been prereleased in what I would characterize as germination mode. It has been distributed with great fanfare to developers everywhere in systems from Compaq, Dell, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. Microsoft announced a version of Windows for Intel's 64-bit Itanium chip. Flags waved, dogs barked and confetti rained down.
The confetti, however, has long been washed into the sewers, the dogs have found other things to vocally approve and the flags are faded and tattered. We have heard almost nothing since the release of the Itanium except that Intel is going to release another one and it's physically big. If this next version of the Itanium processors does not get some momentum going, the processors may become, as the colorful folks at The Register put it, the Itanic.
IT Impact
Intel's latest version of the Itanium chip will be damn big in terms of wafer size. What does that mean to you, dear reader? It means that Intel will have more waste in its process, less processors per wafer and a greater chance of failure. It also means that you will pay more for this chip. Beyond the fact that the common Intel practice is to charge maximum amounts for a cutting-edge processor, this McKinley version of the Itanium processor will cost Intel more.
Action Advice
We recommend that everyone simply hold tight and see how things shake out. If Intel cannot muscle the market into its new 64-bit architecture, things will be grim for early adopters. Our faith in Intel's new architecture was recently shaken with the revelation that the company is readying 64-bit extensions to its Pentium 4 line of processors, codenamed Yamhill. Intel is afraid of AMD's upcoming x86-compatible 64-bit Hammer line of processors, slated for release at the end of the year. None of this looks good for the Itanium, which has been slammed for its performance in 32-bit x86 compatibility mode. Stand clear, and let the market pick the winner. Intel is no longer the sure bet it once was.
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