Fingerpainting, though, must be a big business given the huge number of programmers who value the ease of writing in VB and find Java too obtuse. A middle ground may lie with new Java-based development platforms like the one associated with an application server from SilverStream. Programmers say SilverStream's big advantage is that its development environment resembles that of a fourth-generation language. It's sufficiently alluring that even Microsoft shops, such as Cellular Technologies Inc., have standardized on SilverStream's Java products. That may not be surprising, since the core group behind the company came from PowerSoft.

Aberdeen Group analyst Tim Sloane says he thinks Java could go even further to attract the base of VB developers now writing for Windows. If Sun were willing to create an integrated development environment, Sun's pure Java would be accessible to the 80 percent or 90 percent of developers out there committed to the Microsoft platform, Sloane says. But Sun isn't doing that, he adds, because "it would appear to the industry that it is buying into Microsoft's corruption of Java."

But as things now stand, Java is unlikely to overshadow the massive development in VB anytime soon--if ever. David Smith, Gartner Group vice president for Internet strategies, predicts that the growth in VB usage will continue unimpeded by Java.

C++, however, is another story. Java, combined with HTML and JavaScript on the client, appears to be displacing C++ as the language of choice for ISVs and businesses with high-volume/high-functionality platforms. However, since many of today's most savvy businesses and software vendors deploy apps based on multiple languages, and languages tend to be entrenched, the consensus is that total displacement of even C++ is likely to take five to eight years.

If this is the case, Java use is evolutionary, not revolutionary--but it is a rapid and clear evolution. Even on Microsoft's NT, the language mix tends toward Java and HTML, especially for Web applications. Strategic Focus, for example, found in a survey of 159 business respondents that within two years, 35 percent of the development on Microsoft's NT is expected to be in Java and almost 29 percent in HTML. Alternatives such as VB, Dynamic HTML, JavaScript and Perl all get lumped in the "other" category.

In the enterprise, Java is deployed when development time or portability is an issue, while C++ gets the call when reliance on dynamic memory allocation spawns performance concerns. For intranet use of the application, Java may be deployed on the client. On the Web, that part of the application might be rebuilt using HTML, Dynamic HTML or JavaScript (though some software vendors say they've found Web-based JavaScript support more fractured than the many iterations of Java itself). For many businesses, Java is best for building lightweight CPU server processes, such as servlets that require heavyweight and complicated logic. Access tools to back-end databases also stand Java in good stead on the server.

Steve Gimnicher, vice president of Computer Network Technology Corp., which provides tools for re-engineering and building applications for mainframe and other legacy systems, thinks the best opportunities for Java lie with the server. CNT is focusing on applications, such as one built for AT&T's Inbound Call Receive Center that uses HTML for the thin client for 400 customer-service representatives and taps Java on the server to access customer records and other data. While CNT relies primarily on a non-Java midtier connectivity product, it expects this new Java solution to account for 25 percent of its sales in less than 12 months.

Businesses also use Java to develop new apps that, for scalability reasons, may one day reside on servers other than those now in use. Java portability is far from perfect, but John Neffenger, CTO and founder of Java chat software provider Volano, insists that Volano's software--which runs on 23 operating systems, 10 Java virtual machines and 17 hardware platforms--proves "write once, run anywhere" works.

"People thought they could write once and not do any testing," Neffenger says. "They got carried away and thought they could sit on their tushie and write on their notebook with Windows95 and never do any testing. Still, Java is a heck of a lot better than writing source code for every platform you'll deploy on and hiring 12 people for the compilation-dependent platform switches." The only caveat, and it's a big one, is that because Volano's chat product works across the Web, Neffenger finds he must use the Java JDK with the greatest popularity, 1.02.