As important as reliability is, in the end it's cost that makes or breaks projects. And you don't have to search very far to find incredibly bad WAN values. Examine ISDN long-distance pricing, for example: Tariff 4 specifies dual-channel long-distance ISDN calls at 74 cents a minute. We're talking about a New York-to-Los Angeles connection paid out at New York-to-Calcutta rates. Spend a working day on that connection, and you've burned up more than $300. At these prices, you might as well hop on a plane and go there in person.

ISPs were once considered the saviors of telecommunications budgets. Yet many ISPs have merely adopted major carrier pricing as their yardstick. Take IDSL (ISDN Digital Subscriber Line) service from one top-tier ISP: 128 screaming kilobits for $1,000 per month. That's not a typo--somebody actually shells out five figures each year for nailed-up ISDN service.

Of course, equipment vendors are adept at creating products that get around bloated carrier tariffs. Take the ISDN example above. If your equipment is smart, and perhaps a little sneaky, it can ask the network for a voice call and pass your data traffic over the voice-bearer service, reducing your ISDN bill by a factor of eight.

In another smooth move, a dial-on-demand router can use NAT (network address translation) and turn a single-user PPP account into service for an entire workgroup. Instead of spending $500 per month to put a LAN on the Internet, you can do it for $50. If you're worried about security, invest in a VPN (virtual private network), perhaps running on the same router. Notice a trend? Innovation flashes like lightning in equipment, but is glacial in services.

Big Problem, Big Solution The biggest single technological problem with WANs today is access: pathetic low-bandwidth pipes, on-demand connections that tie up carrier switches and per-minute usage fees. It's time for carriers to tear down circuit-switched access for data, and provide nailed-up connections at reasonable rates. Sadly, we can't expect the incumbent LECs (local exchange carriers) to do this for us; they have too much to protect, and can't move fast enough to deliver service at a price that will turn heads.

The incumbents are also too busy merging fiefdoms and fighting civil wars with labor unions to notice the coming atomic age in carrier services. A new breed of large service providers is going to drop the big one on the establishment, as companies such as Qwest, IXC, and @Home are rolling out a new service mix that will outflank the traditional players. In local markets, guerrilla ISPs are equipping themselves with a new access arsenal. At both ends of the spectrum, these carriers are driving down costs and creating value.

In telecommunications, corporate management remains conservative. But the frustration with slow service, high prices and general carrier indifference to their needs has made management willing to listen to new vendors. Simply having a recognizable name isn't going to cut it anymore.

In a recent Network Computing survey of large buyers of WAN products and services, "brand name" was dead last among factors that influenced their choice of a vendor. Past experience with the vendor didn't rank much higher. The most important criteria? Compatibility, service and support.

Although many of the new offerings will not target the business customer, they will have an unmistakable impact on the enterprise. When cable companies deliver speedy Internet service to residential customers, they'll hook up the SOHO (small office/home office) environments, too. Ironically, these little sites will be better wired than branch offices are today. And while satellite services won't compete on price in major markets, they'll establish a price cap for broadband service, thereby eliminating the pricing/location skew that makes WAN budgeting such hard work.

The Right Price for Bandwidth So, given the alternatives looming on the horizon, what is bandwidth really worth? I'll take a stab at an assessment of comparative value. On a monthly basis, 1-Mbps service to a packet-switched network is worth about $40, $60 at most. Look to CLEC (Competitive LEC), xDSL and broadband data over cable services to bring the pricing down to this level.

Of course, one megabit at this price will send lower bandwidth services pricing into a tailspin. Dedicated 56-Kbps service, the staple of corporate frame relay networks, will be worth $10 to $20--with private frame relay at maybe $80 per month in the long haul. Domestic long-distance service is already worth 8 cents to 12 cents a minute at toll quality, and 5 cents per minute for a less sonically rich but still tolerable service. Vendors are rolling out voice over IP, and it will drive the toll dial market--now a pure commodity service--way down (see "VoIP in the Enterprise," page 41).

These estimates have nothing to do with what carriers are quoting today, and I'm not implying that any organization has yet contracted service pricing at these low rates. Nor does this prophesy the death of ISDN, T1 services or any other element of the digital hierarchy. Then again, why should you care if your bits are delivered over T1, xDSL, cable, terrestrial wireless or satellite? The sane option is choice, because choice delivers value.

Send your comments on this column to David Willis at dwillis@nwc.com.