
By Art Wittmann
Representatives from Rockwell Semiconductor recently asked to see me for a product briefing. Normally, there isn't much reason for me to meet with the semiconductor houses--we cover end products, not chips. But this particular product seemed different. The folks at Rockwell wanted to talk about the company's latest xDSL product, and that's a market worth taking some extra time to understand. After our meeting, I came to the conclusion that the telephone market will change tremendously over the next few years--and technology like Rockwell's might well be at the crux of those changes.
Rockwell's new chip is intended for products that will be used in small and branch offices. It supports SDSL (Symmetrical Digital Subscriber Line) at data rates up to approximately 2 Mbps. That's not a big deal in itself, but the interesting twist is that Rockwell supports running voice calls over a data channel. Its idea is to run a single channel between a small office and a central office that will carry all data and voice traffic at a cost much lower than that of present T1 lines. The chip, like most other multipurpose chips, will cost roughly $20--that's similar to the cost of T1 or ISDN support hardware. So a small router with this chip probably won't cost any more than today's small routers.
Fairy Tales It's a good story, but Rockwell--and the rest of the industry, for that matter--is targeting the wrong market. Instead of small offices, xDSL companies should be thinking of home offices--particularly home offices with teenagers around.
To understand why, answer these questions: What are the hardest buildings to wire for new phone lines? And which buildings are the hardest into which to pull phone lines? The answer to both questions is our homes.
The problem with xDSL is that you generally can run only a single voice line over it. If you're going to widen a data channel, why not run lots of voice lines to the house? Everyone who's lived with a teenager or tried to conduct business from home knows that the standard two phone lines in most of our homes isn't enough.
As time goes by, more and more devices in the home will need access to phone lines. Today, it's your fax machine and separate numbers for yourself, your kids and your business. Tomorrow, you may want to connect your security system, environmental control system, utility meters and even the underground sprinkler to a home-based data network.
More for Wireless? Some applications need phone lines; some need data lines. But all of these applications need ways to run into and around the home. For many of them, wireless is an answer. Even the teenage market needs wireless. Cleverly combine 900-MHz digital phones with Rockwell's technology while keeping the monthly subscription cost down, and baby boomers and GenX kids will all beat a path to your door.
There's tremendous potential for home networking for both voice and data. We're just seeing the tip of the iceberg here, and whether we get flexible high-speed networking from the cable companies or from the telcos, this is a market that could ultimately revolutionize bandwidth for the business user. We've all been talking about the bottom falling out of bandwidth costs, and this is another indication of how it will happen.
And by the looks of it, the telcos don't understand where the home market is going. Rockwell is making this chip for a much smaller target audience than it should be. That isn't really the company's fault; it's just subscribing to the general view of the landscape. But chip companies should be pushing data networking everywhere rather than being pulled along by the market.
Personally, I think we've barely scratched the surface of what we can do with wireless. The broad market is the home, and with 900-MHz phones selling for $40 or $50, they'll soon be as common as the old black rotary phones once were. On the data side, 802.11 could find its broad appeal for home use if someone is willing to bet on a volume market. Venture capitalists should be studying the odds.
Send your comments on this column to Art Wittmann at awittmann@nwc.com.
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Other Articles by Art Wittmann
The Y2K Issue: The Time Is Now July 15, 1998
Microsoft, Take 2 August 1, 1998
Will Java Be The Only Thing In Your Future? August 1, 1998
Networking Main StreetęGet Ready August 15, 1998
The Yin And Yang Of Enterprise Computing September 1, 1998
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