Over the past 20 years, analysts and marketers have found a label for the defining event of each year. There were the "Year of the LAN" and the "Year of ISDN," among others. But all will pale compared with the "Century of Communications." We have gone from a few pieces of copper across the country to fiber running down an increasingly higher percentage of America's main streets.

Telecommunications complexity is driving companies away from managing their own wide area networks. WAN hardware acquisition will be performed by service providers. Even WAN premise equipment will be owned, installed and operated by service providers. This will happen only because we'll no longer need to trust the service provider to keep our traffic private. We will take complete control of our privacy with network-level privacy services. Whether you choose IPSec (IP Security)- or L2TP (Layer 2 Tunneling Protocol)-based products, you can own your security policies. Network service providers will be selected based on the reliability of their offerings, not privacy. Claims of "no connection to the Internet" will not be a deciding factor, since you'll be providing your own security.

Connectivity is fast becoming a commodity. There still is a respectable cost to switch connectivity providers, but this is temporary. Reliability and reachability will determine which service providers get our business. Reachability is more important than reliability--after all, the best service quality doesn't help if both ends of the communication aren't on the same network. Thus, the closed-network offerings at N+I are only valuable for replacing corporate WANs and for those 800-pound enterprises that can dictate to their enterprise communities where they'll get connectivity. Networking consortia that give us a choice yet provide reliable services will have the product of value at the end of the century.

Where Your Money Goes

It's budget time, and the next N+I show is coming up in October. Plan to spend money on security infrastructure and to balance this expenditure with reduced communications costs. By planning well, you'll reduce operational costs and open business opportunities. Do your homework and set your security direction--this also means educational possibilities for you and your staff. Develop your corporate WAN and enterprise networking requirements and run some requests for information.

You should be able to start revamping your network now for the new century. If you still need some product information, there will always be another trade show.

Robert Moskowitz is a senior technical director at the International Computer Security Association and a member of the Internet Architecture Board. Send your comments on this column to him at rgm@htt-consult.com.