Mobile Voice Blazes an Astral Trail for Broadband
LEO and MEO Mobile Satellite Systems have become the older siblings in a family of satellites now heading for the sky-those called upon to blaze a path through the political and technical issues broadband systems will soon encounter.
And from the system leaders-ICO, Iridium, and Globalstar-many lessons are already being learned about negotiating global spectrum as well as speeding up manufacturing and
launch processes.
Although most mobile satellite systems won't offer data services at speeds higher than 9.6Kbps (sufficient to download e-mail globally with a bit of foot-tapping) these systems may one day contribute significantly to the fate of broadband systems. That's because key backers-like Inmarsat with ICO, Motorola with Iridium and Loral with Globalstar-aren't apt to miss the market for bundled broadband and mobile voice, paging and e-mail services.
The MSS experience is also instructional in other ways. By last December the $5 billion Iridium venture set the record for launching the most satellites in the least time--41 satellites in eight months. Motorola, a key investor, designer, builder and prime contractor for the 18-member consortium, says it's been able to manufacture a single satellite in less than 25 days, versus a more typical timetable of a year. Commercial service is expected late this year from the full 72-satellite constellation, including six spares. For its part, Moto
rola was able to secure two of its very own international calling codes for the system.
That's the upside. The downside is that Iridium pricing is coming in higher than most expected-- with per minute costs up to $3 on top of equipment and subscription charges. Marco Caceres of the Teal Group says that pricing should work for business travelers but does little to foster third world business, where "they'll have to get down to pennies per minute."
But many satellite analysts seem to think there's sufficient business to keep the big three LEOs as well as a few regional GEOs busy. Leslie Taylor, president of Leslie Taylor Associates, Bethesda, Md., predicts these systems will have 12 million subscribers between 2000 and 2003, "which is more than enough for three Big LEOs to be very profitable and for up to three of the regional systems to have attractive returns as well. She predicts revenues of $20-$30 billion annually by 2004. Taylor says these systems will be popular even in the United States
where substantial areas still lack cellular services and roaming continues to be difficult. Taylor says Iridium and Globalstar are now completely financed and ICO is close.
Another thing broadband users will want to analyze closely in MSS systems is just how well intersatellite link technology performs. This new and complex technology, to be deployed in Iridium, is a key feature on upcoming broadband LEO and MEO systems as well as some GEO systems. Celestri, Astrolink, Teledesic and Spaceway have all announced plans to use ISLs on their broadband systems.
Most of Iridium's voice competitors, Globalstar among them, have opted not to use ISLs in favor of space-to-ground links.
Globalstar is a 56-satellite LEO system from Loral Space & Communications, Ltd. and QUALCOMM Inc, Strategic partners include: AirTouch Communications, DACOM/Hyundai, France Telecom/Alcatel (Alcatel's SkyBridge is also strategically aligned with Loral's broadband Cyberstar), Daimler-Benz, Vodafone, Alenia Spaz
io, Elsag Bailey, and FINMECCANICA.
Following delays in its first launch, Globalstar expects to launch 44 satellites this year and to begin commercial service before the end of first quarter 1999. Twelve satellites will be launched in early 1999.
The first four Globalstar gateways are completed and ready to support the first launch. Progress on the construction of an additional 34 gateways is on schedule. In early February Globalstar was authorized to provide service in 24 countries.
Globalstar phones will cost about $800, a big drop from current GEO-based phones, which can cost $5000.
ICO
The third leading mobile satellite effort is ICO Global Communications.
Among ICO's 57 investment partners is Inmarsat and TRW. In recent months
TRW dropped both a suit it had against ICO as well as it's own competing
Odyssey constellation. ICO has raised more than $2 billion for its
effort.
ICO's pocket phones are expected to work with satellite, cellular and PCS
netw
orks. Services, including digital voice, data, fax and messaging, are
expected to begin in 2000. ICO will initially deliver 2.4 Kbps uplinks
and 9.6 Kbps downlinks, with the possibility of greater bandwidth in
later services.
The MEO constellation is expected to have 10 satellites and two spares
and operate in the S and C-band. All launches have been procured and the
first launch is set for this year.
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