
Will Video Phones Ever Make Sense?
By Bill Frezza
If you're my age and live on the East Coast, you remember visiting the 1964 World's Fair to get a glimpse of the world of the future. One of the highlights was Bell System's Picturephone--a marvel of analog engineering that represented the "obvious" next step in telecommunications.
When I arrived at Bell Labs in 1978, the last functioning Picturephone units were still sitting on the desks of senior executives, the only surviving reminders of one of Ma Bell's most colossal business failures.
Recently, I've been playing with the Intel Internet Video Phone, a natural complement to my Dell Pentium II desktop PC, Connectix QuickCam digital camera and Motorola BitSURFR Pro ISDN modem--the latest marvels of digital engineering. How far we've come in a third of a century! Yet, how clueless we remain about the whys an
d wherefores of interpersonal video communication.
Don't get me wrong, I'm enthralled by the scratchy little pictures and garbled sounds that appear when I try to converse with the odd strangers who pop up on my screen. But I have no idea why. Sitting in front of the monitor repeating, "Hello? Can you see me?," I feel like an idiotic ham-radio operator who just spent the family's vacation money on his stupid hobby.
I have no trouble imagining what this technology might look like when it finally works, but I can't conceive of a business model for person-to-person video communications--aside from cybersex--that makes any sense. Nor am I enthralled with multiuser, peer-to-peer videoconferencing. I've participated in these through the years, using products like PictureTel's, and I always come away unsatisfied and glad that someone else was paying the bill.
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One business, though, seems like a natural for video phones--I call it MicroSeminars. It uses low-end Internet m
ultimedia technology to change the economics of the booming seminar and training business. How many times a week are you bombarded with brochures asking you to cough up $800 to $1,500 to listen to a handful of experts give you the poop on some hot new technology? How much money does your company spend flying people around for this sort of thing? And how often do you find that after paying the big bucks and giving up all that time, only one of the five speakers on the program is worth a damn?
If you speak at these things, as I do, you know that the economics are not very attractive to the lecturers--those supplying the actual knowledge. The conference organizers keep most of the dough--as well they should, since they bear the costs of promotion, take the risk of booking the hotel space, feed everybody lunch, and collect and assemble the conference material.
Why not use desktop videoconferencing to unbundle the package, cut out the middleman, drop the price of attending by a factor of 10 and take the ma
rket global? Lecturers need only be equipped with the hardware I have right now--a high-end PC, a digital camera and an ISDN line. Presentations would consist of multicast audio with one video talking head and controls to let the lecturer drive everyone's browser through the material.
Payment would be collected online using MasterCard or Visa. Even at $99 a pop, groups as small as 20 would be quite profitable. (Who would turn down $2,000 for a couple of hours' work?) This would all be scheduled in real time. Canned videotapes just don't have the performance value of a live presentation, nor do they allow the presenter to respond to questions. Best of all, anyone that has some expertise to share, knows how to do stand-up and can draw a crowd of a few dozen people can get in the game without even quitting their day job.
No doubt, numerous start-ups are working on this. I've seen bits an
d pieces floating about, and, of course, Microsoft has inflicted its clunky NetMeeting on us. I haven't come across an
integrated package yet, but it's just a matter of time.
Bill Frezza is a general partner at Adams Capital Management. The opinions expressed here are his own. He can be reached at frezza@alum.MIT.EDU or techweb.cmp.com/nc/frezza/frezza.html.
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Updated September 24, 1997
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