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Do you begin to see the challenges that await xDSL modem vendors once this stuff gets out into the real world? Many of these challenges ha ve nothing to do with technology.

The Push for xDSL My comments are not meant to spread despair. This technology is very real, and the challenges, though onerous, are not nearly as insurmountable as those facing cable modem vendors. At least the network operators who have to deploy equipment on their ends of the line aren't broke. Many Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier (ILEC) bigwigs are pursuing xDSL with vigor. Perhaps this pursuit is stimulated by the fear that the unbundling provisions of the Telecommunications Act could render them vulnerable to more nimble competitors that might swoop in and grab the best copper pairs at bargain-basement rates.

The "Gang of Four"--a joint procurement consortium consisting of Ameritech, BellSouth, Pacific Bell and SBC Communications--has been doing a credible job driving down hardware prices by dangling large volume opportunities in front of vendors. But the pace of deployment will never match the blistering speed with which new modems can be jammed thro ugh retail distribution channels, nor will consumers have the flexibility and range of choices they've become accustomed to with modems that treat the PSTN transparently.

Perhaps the most interesting ILEC on the xDSL front is U S West. It has created !NTERPRISE--an arm's length subsidiary established to pursue competitive local exchange businesses by leasing copper pairs from its regulated parent. !NTERPRISE recently introduced a spate of services that run the gamut of xDSL technologies.

The most impressive thing about the people at !NTERPRISE is that they walk, talk and act like entrepreneurs--nothing like the Bellheads I grew up with. Yet, ask them what the killer app is for xDSL, and they'll tell you it's pair gain. For that matter, go visit the ISDN folks at Bell Atlantic and ask them what application accounts for a majority of their ISDN line installs to date, and they'll tell you voice.

This may be an awfully conservative view, but as a start-up business, it makes a lot more sense than the wacky "content" driven broadband video services about which the multimegabit crowd keeps squawking. Whether we like it or not, we're going to have to walk before we run, which means we'd better be prepared to linger at the 128-Kbps mark for a spell.

Coming Home Which brings us back to good ol' ISDN--a mature, well-understood technology that doesn't have the hype appeal of xDSL, but does a fantastic job of delivering value for money right now in the real world. It took decades to reach the point where you can buy an ISDN modem though retail distribution and have any hope of getting it to work on your local phone line. But this trauma is largely behind us. For the next five years, ISDN is going to be the predominant digital technology in the local loop--not because the technology is better, but because the business case has been made. Yes, we need a packet-switched version to solve the central office congestion problem. But this will be a lot easier to deliver than constructing an entirely new in frastructure, and business, around xDSL.

Although my own experience with Bell Atlantic's ISDN service has not been without its start-up problems, it's been well worth the effort. I can't imagine giving it up now and going back to an a nalog dial-up modem. In fact, one of the best things about coming home from a long stint on the road--aside from a homemade bowl of pasta fagioli after a week of restaurant food--is jacking back in to my ISDN port. And you're not likely to hear me complaining about the speed until the servers on the far end learn to spit out data faster. An xDSL modem for Christmas? Not this year anyway.

Bill Frezza is president of Wireless Computing Associates. He can be reached via e-mail at frezza@interramp.com or at his online forum at techweb.cmp.com/nc/frezza/frezza.html.