Top 25 Technology Drivers

But the flexible mind-set of a scientist, the willingness to re-examine choices based on the facts, has followed Myhrvold through 37 years. Myhrvold, in fact, didn't start out as a computer scientist. His work began with Stephen Hawking , author of A Brief History of Time, studying cosmology and quantum field theory. He took off a summer to work on a software project--one that led to the creation of a 15-person company that wrote Windows systems software for the PC. When Myhrvold's company was a cquired by Microsoft he went on to become the development manager for Windows 2.0. One of Myhrvold's pivotal strategies was his push in 1988 for Microsoft to develop a network operating system based on the RISC chip that would compete with Unix. Windows NT was the result.

Even in the kind of high-pressure job Myhrvold now commands, there's room for something new. In the last year he studied French cooking at La Varenne in France, apprenticing at Rover's French restaurant in Seattle, where he still works an occasional evening. His twin 7-year-old sons have already developed a taste for Dad's cooking. When he has the time, Myhrvold also takes off in his Hummer, camera in hand to photograph nature.

His primary quest over the past 12 months at Microsoft has been to determine "how the Internet and the intranet can benefit the users of Microsoft office in doing productivity work" as well as figuring out new opportunities, such as Slate magazine or Microsoft's upcoming travel services. He also takes great pr ide in the work of Microsoft's research and development labs, especially their network multimedia efforts.

Myhrvold believes that "the computer business has been determined by how well people adapt to changes in technology, whether in personal computing to begin with, or the graphical user interface, or the Internet." He believes, too, that what is happening on the Internet is of such a magnitude that "every application needs to take advantage of it."

That's a big target, and Myhrvold says over the next 12 months his focus will be on refining Microsoft's Internet strategy and bringing out new products to take advantage of it. A key example of the issues with which he's grappling lies with digital video technology. DVD, he says, will bring higher v ideo quality to the PC than the television. "It's a tremendous opportunity to deliver high-quality video in applications," he says, but issues such as MPEG compression and the need to leverage existing bandwidth come into play.

Problems in predicting the source of bandwidth also occupy Myhrvold. He predicts that by the year 2000 every consumer and every business desktop, will have the kind of bandwidth that will support video--at least 6 Mbps--or they'll be able to get that bandwidth within a few years. "It's one of the great questions whether this will be delivered by cable, ADSL, direct fiber to the home or direct switched digital service. And probably 384 Kbps will come back out.

Myhrvold's greatest concern about developments over the next few years is the seeming unwillingness of governments to adapt to changes in technology--especially when it comes to security. Loss of service, fraud, problems with transaction integrity are all problems Myhrvold predicts if strong security is not in place on the Internet by that time. "One of the main problems in crypto graphy is the clash between those people who think they can and should control the Net and those who recognize effective control is beyond their means. They can only ruin it for law-abiding citizens," he says.

Myhrvold isn't willing to spell out the exact solution, but he does say that a U.S. government-based key escrow approach "will be unacceptable worldwide." And the issue isn't limited to the U.S. government. He expects to see a wide variety of key escrow plans used worldwide.

Myhrvold goes back to the Bill of Rights in making his argument. At that time, he says, "we made a series of bets on human nature, we as a country. We bet that it was better if a few guilty people were let free if we didn't prosecute an innocent man, that it is better to avoid torture or self-in crimination."

"In the encryption debate or the Communications Decency Act a variety of people are seeking to repeal the Bill of Rights in cyberspace," he says. "The Net seems different enough to these people that they think it's reasonable to ask these questions all over again. We want to protect our children, but it turns out that freedom of the press had been a good thing since it was ratified some 200 years ago. It has paid off as an American value and I personally would say that we should vote in favor of making the Bill of Rights bet all over again in cyberspace."

Past 12 Months: Determining an Internet strategy, products and content innovations for Microsoft.
Next 12 Months: To refine Microsoft's Internet strategy and bring out new products to take advantage of it.
Millennium Forecast: Millions of people will have at least 6 Mbps to the home and business desktop. What the source of that bandwidth will be and provisioning to the entire population will be only a few years away.
Millennium Disturbance: The world will have significant fraud, loss of service and transactional integrity risks if the United States and other nations fail to permit strong authentication and encryption.
Car: 1994 silver Hummer, us ed off-road for landscape and wildlife photography