FREEWIRE

Satellite Data: On Top Of The World

by Bill Frezza

As wireless voice and data networks relentlessly sprinkle antenna towers across the major population centers of the world, a new breed of global network operator--part technologist, part business whiz and part social crusader--has emerged to claim the skies. Pursuing plans to launch Low Earth Orbital (LEO) satellite systems, a series of ventures is moving forward to provide telecommunications services where terrestrial networks are unlikely to go.

Some of these ventures are based on hard-nosed assessments of market niches willing to pay stiff premiums for truly ubiquitous access--jet-setting international travelers, long-haul truckers, oil-rig operators, and recreational boaters and pilots. Some are blatant technology-push exercises driven by defense industry refugees seeking commercial outlets for their wares. Curiously enough, a pair of the world's most famous entrepreneurs is backing a vision that appears to be founded not on profit potential but on woolly-headed humanitarianism. Their manifesto--to bring the benefits of computers and communications to every mud hut and village--reads like a digital rendition of Rudyard Kipling's "white man's burden." However, rather than marching into the bush with a pistol and a Bible, these brilliant billionaires are wooing government authorities with plans to play Johnny Appleseed with miniature parabolic dishes and P.C. PCs. What's going on here?

The idea of providing communications services not from one large satellite in geostationary orbit, but from a constellation of smaller satellites whizzing overhead, seems almost preposterous. Yet advances provided by the failed Star Wars defense initiative coupled with relentless improvements in microelectronics are making such systems feasible. Just like cellular, substantial capacity gains can also be had by geographically reusing frequencies across the smaller footprint of satellites orbiting a mere 500 miles away, as opposed to 22,000 miles for geosynchronous. Provided a market exists for the services, this should make up for the cost and complexity of juggling dozens or even hundreds of satellites.

Big and Little LEOs LEOs come in two basic flavors. The so-called "Big LEOs" will offer narrowband voice, data, paging and fax services. From a features and performance standpoint, they look like giant cellular telephone systems in the sky. Some will market dual-mode portable handsets that can fall back to conventional and less expensive terrestrial cellular networks wherever these are available.

Leading the Big LEO pack are Iridium, a Motorola-backed consortium planning to launch 66 satellites, and Globalstar, a Loral/Qualcomm initiative teeing up 56 birds. The two companies' architectures are quite different. Iridium is designing powerful switching centers into each satellite, along with intersatellite links, to provide intrinsic long distance capability. Globalstar's satellites are strictly "bent pipe" digital repeaters, with all the switching and call processing facilities on the ground. This is not only less costly but allows Globalstar to take advantage of ongoing improvements in switching technology.

Inmarsat, an international government consortium, plans to launch a rival system based on a smaller number of satellites in Intermediate Circular Orbit. These satellite veterans are playing the spoiler with what they believe is a lower risk plan based on between nine and 15 spacecraft.

"Little LEOs" are similar in concept to Big LEOs but provide less ambitious services. They will off er only narrowband store-and-forward data, making them similar to two-way paging systems. More than half a dozen corporations are chasing this opportunity, lead by companies like Orbcomm and GE Americom.

Teledesic--Crazy Like a Fox Then there's Teledesic. Backed principally by Bill Gates and Craig McCaw, Teledesic Corp. goes far beyond any of the Big or Little LEOs with plans to offer broadband bandwidth-on-demand services closer to wireless fiber than cellular. Comprising a constellation of a whopping 840 satellites, the Teledesic network will use high-gain, steerable scanning beams to lay down a fixed grid of some 20,000 supercells across the earth's surface. Each of these will consist of nine smaller cells within which users can flexibly obtain connectionless datagram services based on fast packet switching Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology. User data rates can vary between 16 Kbps and 2.048 Mbps.

Satellites will be linked to the terrestrial telecommunications web via high-capacity ground stations. However, they will also form an independent web of their own, using high-speed intersatellite links between each satellite and eight of its neighbors. This non-hierarchical geodesic mesh should be highly tolerant of faults, local congestion and the disruption of downlinks. Clearly, while the creators of Iridium and Globalstar were out studying cellular phone systems, Teledesic was studying the Internet.

Teledesic estimates that when fully deployed, the system could support two million simultaneous basic rate (16-Kbps) connections, roughly corresponding to 20 million users at typical wireline business usage levels. Yet, unlike the other LEOs, Teledesic is not focused on serving mobile customers. While a small degree of transportability will be accommodated, Teledesic is primarily designed to provide services to fixed locations. So where is the opportunity here?

Well, stop and think about the hoopla over hybrid fiber coax and fiber-to-the-curb technologies. As impressive as the tri al systems are, we are decades away from digging up and replacing all the twisted-pair local loops that form the real bottlenecks to mass-market, broadband interactive services. Backhoes do not follow Moore's law. This means that an opportunity will exist for a long time for a bypass alternative that is not subject to local and regional deployment headaches. And as the leaders of the information revolution--people who actually can make a living on the Net--slowly migrate away from crime-infested cities to their pastoral retreats, how are they going to get high-bandwidth access? How much will they be willing to pay for it? Plenty.

This is where the real money is, not chasing after Third World phone booths and tribal health clinics. Teledesic will be in a prime position to serve the needs of the world's technology elite. What a mind-boggling power base to work from. So how come there's not a peep about this in Teledesic's marketing literature, and what in the world is this "developing nations" blabber all about?

A Revolution Indeed Teledesic estimates that more than half the world's population lives more than two hours from a telephone. These are the quintessential "have-nots" that need to be brought into the "Clinton Administration's vision of universal access to a Global Information Infrastructure." I have no hard figures, but I bet these poor folks also produce less than 5 percent of the world's income. Making a dime off them is going to be plenty tough, at least initially.

Yet suppose you had a powerful sense of history and were rich enough to take the long view? Slipping advanced telecommunications technology into developing countries right under the noses of the thugs that control their economies and cultures may be just the long-term strategy needed to plant the seeds of liberty. In an interesting move, Craig McCaw has pledged to dedicate Teledesic capacity on a nonprofit basis to address the "critical communications needs" of the developing world. He has even agreed to place this under the control of local governing authorities rather than deliver services directly to users--something that would be considered a threat in many Third World capitals.

"Yes-siree, your lordship general, sir. Our earth-fixed cell design respects both national boundaries and national sovereignty. You can have total physical control over the ground stations that serve as gateways for all traffic moving in and out of your country. You can use our network to supplement the services of your tottering state-run telecommunications monopoly, rather than compete with it. Go ahead and peek into every packet if you'd like to make sure those nasty dissidents don't disrupt your latest five-year plan. Feel free to restrict access to any Internet service that threatens your cultural purity. There's nothing to fear from our little dishes." What a grand joke it will be a few years down the road when, with a flick of a switch thousands of miles away, this software-controlled network reconfigures itself to cut the goons out of the loop.

It's hard to tell whether the management at Teledesic would even permit itself to think this way. Who knows, perhaps these people really believe all the socialist tripe they're spouting. Still, like the sixteenth century Jesuit missionaries that paved the way for European colonialism, it actually doesn't matter what they believe. One way or another, if the most successful capitalists in the computer and communications industries ever get this broadband Internet-in-the-sky off the ground, the world will never be the same.

The first satellite is scheduled to go up in the year 2001. Here's wishing them happy launchings.

Bill Frezza is the president of Wireless Computing Associates and the chairman of the wireless modem standards committee of the PCCA. Bill can be reached at frezza@radiomail.net.

November 15, 1995