In the technical press, writers are expected to speak authoritatively, and there's pressure to establish or maintain technical credibility. Many technical journalists have never implemented a wireless network save for the WiFi wireless adapter on their notebook computers. However, this doesn't necessarily make them less insightful than the journalists who have industry experience. Techies-turned-journalists often are pushed and pulled among so many different products and technologies that they find it extremely difficult to understand any one in depth--and they're supposed to write with a self-confident attitude even if they're uncertain.

Not Just the Media

The media get most of the blame for hyping wireless, but they're not alone. Analysts and market researchers are guilty as well. Analysts are hired to predict the future, something Gartner Group takes to the height of silliness by couching its predictions in probabilities to create the illusion of precision. For example, "802.11b will remain the dominant wireless LAN technology through 2004 (.6 probability)." We know the predictions are just educated guesses, but some are more "guess" than "educated."

Market researchers take hype to another level when they project analyst guesses into multimillion- or multibillion-dollar markets. The foundation for these figures is market statistics -- often of dubious validity -- coupled with a time-series statistical model that translates into pretty graphics.

Then there are the vendors, which have hypesters on staff and at outside PR agencies charged with delivering simple, compelling messages. Vendors often stretch the truth, providing their own hype. I recently came across a press release for an 802.11b wireless NIC that asserted a transmission range of "up to 700 feet" while using WEP encryption to "ensure secure data transmission across the network." Of course, it omits the part about WEP being vulnerable to security attacks. But it's just another little white lie, right?

Technical marketing professionals at wireless companies face perhaps the greatest challenge. They must differentiate their products from the competition and deliver a convincing ROI story. In most cases, they know more than they say -- about both their competitors' strengths and their own limitations. It's OK for them to cast their system in the most favorable light, isn't it? Now ask yourself: Is hiding the truth the same as out-and-out lying?

Caveat Emptor

How can you sort through the hype? Read and listen to many sources -- both internal and external -- with somewhat cynical eyes and ears. Ask questions of your wireless vendors. And heed the most credible advice. The hardest part is that you must do so even as your business manager -- with little technology knowledge and a desire to leverage technology for bottom-line benefits -- is being spoon-fed hype every day. If you're too quick to dismiss emerging technologies, you may be seen as "stuck in the past." But if you fall for the hype, you may find yourself supporting a technology that will never be ready. Hypesters need not concern themselves with accountability; make sure you do.