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Mobile Devices

The industry has made significant progress with today's dominant mobile devices, finding compelling ways to deliver data to cell phones, and to wireless-enable PDAs and notebooks. Yet the hardest work lies ahead.

IT organizations--which routinely spend thousands of dollars per employee each year trying to keep information-intensive professionals equipped with the latest and greatest hardware and software--have invested heavily in notebook computers. Many professionals carry their notebooks from home to office and on the road--an activity that has proven profitable for chiropractors everywhere. While today's notebooks provide a capable mobile office platform, connecting back to the office with dial-up modems is often frustrating. So it's not surprising that the wireless hot-spots market, which provides high-speed wireless access to mobile users, is heating up. MobileStar's suspension of operations and subsequent rescue by VoiceStream are illustrative of both the challenges faced by hot-spot providers and the interest these providers are garnering among the major cellular providers, all of which are hedging their 3G bets with forays into the WLAN hot-spot business.

While notebooks still drive the mobile data market, PDAs and cell phones are destined to play a more significant role. One interesting debate is whether the preferred device of the future will be the so-called smartphone. If smartphones catch on, the change will likely be evolutionary. The allure of maximum portability is powerful among today's cell-phone users, yet miniaturization is not conducive to data delivery. The PDA form factor, typified by Palm and Microsoft Pocket PC devices, makes for a more functional mobile data platform, but compelling applications continue to lag behind hardware development. Over the next 18 months the PDA will be transformed from personal organizer into mobile application platform.

Wireless Infrastructure

Today's wireless data infrastructure is evolving rapidly. On a global scale, the first credible wireless deployments were introduced during the past year, including leading-edge 3G deployments in Asia and somewhat more modest 2.5G cellular packet offerings in the United States and Europe. By this time next year, all the major U.S. carriers--AT&T, Cingular Wireless, Nextel Communications, Sprint, Verizon and VoiceStream--will have significantly upgraded their cellular data delivery in a substantial percentage of their markets. The next challenge will be to develop pricing models that satisfy both businesses and consumers.

Because of an interest in wireless LANs, many network engineers are reading up on RF technology, though the most ambitious WLAN rollouts continue in key vertical markets, such as education and healthcare, and among technology-oriented businesses. Deploying WLAN technology is demanding and risky given inadequate security and evolving standards. Also, while the price of consumer-grade wireless access points has fallen drastically in the past year, enterprise-class products are still costly. Despite technical improvements--most notably power-over-Ethernet technology--design and deployment costs are still high.

The coming year will be exciting for the wireless LAN industry. Products based on new standards like 802.11g, which bumps data rates up to 54 Mbps in the 2.4-GHz band while preserving backward compatibility, will surface. We'll also see improvements to 5-GHz 802.11a products, spurred on by significant competition in the chipset market. We expect the IEEE to complete work on improved security and quality of service enhancements to the 802.11 standard. Management and troubleshooting tools needed for delivering four-nines reliability are also beginning to appear. And beyond the enterprise market, wireless LANs are becoming increasingly popular in homes and public spaces. There's even a retro 1970s WLAN freenet market emerging, where a loosely organized cadre of technologists are deploying WLAN technologies throughout metropolitan areas. All these external developments make it more probable that enterprises will implement WLAN infrastructures.

While cellular data and WLAN infrastructure get most of the headlines, other wireless infrastructure markets are gaining credibility. The quiet cash cow of the wireless industry is the enterprise fixed-access wireless market. You can bypass your local exchange carrier by installing high-speed wireless links across distances of 25 miles or more, with financial paybacks often measured in months rather than years. Yes, there have been significant business failures, including the LMDS debacles of Teligent and Winstar and the MMDS hiccups of Sprint and WorldCom. But don't let those examples sour you on the technology, which really is reliable. A new generation of systems that overcome current line-of-sight requirements will make these solutions more viable.

The Shape of Things to Come

With wireless, the sky is the limit--literally. Look for satellite systems based on both geosynchronous and low earth-orbit satellites to gain popularity in the coming years. Despite a few technical obstacles, for some applications and geographies, satellite is the only way to go.

The integration of GPS and other location-based capabilities into wireless devices is another notable development. These capabilities are already proving extremely beneficial for logistics applications, but we've only just begun to tap their potential. Before you know it, your motor vehicle will be loaded with wireless technologies ranging from emergency communications to on-board navigation and collision-avoidance systems. And the potential for location-specific advertising and mobile commerce is huge.

Future technical breakthroughs in wireless communications are a certainty, though you have to wonder whether politicians and regulators will be instrumental in crafting good policy. If government fails to come to grips with basic policy questions, including how to allocate and regulate RF spectrum, the wireless industry may find itself thwarted. Let's hope wiser heads prevail.

Dave Molta is a senior technology editor of Network Computing. He is also an assistant professor in the School of Information Studies at Syracuse University and director of the Center for Emerging Network Technologies. Molta's experience includes 15 years in IT and network management. Send your comments on this article to him at dmolta@nwc.com.

• "Mobile Technology Is on the Move" (TechWeb, April 1, 2002)

• "The Telematics Challenge" (InformationWeek, April 1, 2002)

• "Wireless LANs Make Enterprise Waves" (InternetWeek, Feb. 8, 2002)

• "The Survivor's Guide to 2002: Mobile & Wireless Technology" (Network Computing, Dec. 17, 2001)