This attitude pervades every level of commercial analysis. Take the economy: Government agencies spew reams of statistics on inventory levels, retail sales, unemployment claims, housing starts, industrial output and consumer confidence, yet no one seems able or willing to interpret the data conclusively. Inventory buildups, for instance, are viewed as both negative (companies can't unload the goods on their shelves) and positive (companies are stocking up now for an anticipated buying boom). Which of these contrary economic views is correct? Even the Federal Reserve is caught in the headlights, saying last month that economic risks are so evenly balanced between weakness and inflation that it would be unwise to tinker with interest rates.
Closer to home, the so-called IT experts are also spoon-feeding homogenized advice. Certain technology testing services applaud the products they review as if the participants were competitors in the local 10-kilometer fun run: "You're all winners!" In a news release highlighting a recent survey of CIOs, one consultant offered this vapid observation on technology spending trends: "It's time for clear focus on short-term cost cutting, but there is an upturn coming -- even if it is uneven. While CIOs and enterprises are struggling to weather the present storm, they need to be positioning themselves for future opportunities. Fortune will favor the balanced in 2002 as they will succeed in the short term and be well-placed for the upturn." So if I'm an IT pro trying to serve one of those CIOs the firm surveyed, what is it I need to do now? Batten down the hatches or let out the sails?
Companies and their technology advisers must understand that there's a fine line between prudence and paralysis. Yesterday's strategic tech initiatives -- wireless, bandwidth management, supply-chain management, data warehousing, public key infrastructure and so on -- are now avoided as too risky or extravagant because their returns aren't clear or immediate enough. So what gets approved? Safe, straightforward projects that yield only incremental returns. It's a sure path to mediocrity.
That's not to suggest that companies should throw caution to the wind. Fiscal responsibility is a fact of life in this economy. Companies blew plenty of money over the past few years on state-of-the-art bloatware and over-the-top infrastructure. It's no time to even try pushing nice-to-have projects.
But if these same companies and IT organizations keep their heads down long enough, competitors will find a way to out-innovate them. It's up to IT professionals to take a stand, to pick the three or four most strategic projects and drive them onto management's agenda.
The chief technology officer at one leading hospitality company estimates he spends 90 percent of his time persuading senior management to approve IT projects and only 10 percent actually evaluating technologies. Although this situation isn't ideal -- the CTO's valuable technical expertise is being subjugated by red tape -- at least he has management's ear. Better to be in a position to unclog the logjam than to be on the outside peering in.
What has your experience been? Is your company still reluctant to make hard technology decisions in this lackluster economy? How have you and your team been able to grease the wheels? Drop me a note at the e-mail address below.
-- Rob Preston, rpreston@cmp.com
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