Directories
As the importance of establishing user identity over the Internet and the complexity of managing multiple access rights for employees, customers, vendors and partners increase so does the need for solid directory services. Most enterprise customers underutilize directories, but we're convinced that directories -- with another year of maturity under their belts and an increasing number of business applications available that leverage directory services -- will grow more important during 2002.
Over the past few years it's been accepted that a directory service supporting an e-business application isn't the best choice for an enterprise directory, and vice versa. Internet service-based directories, such as iPlanet's Directory Server, control the extranet and e-business space, while Novell's eDirectory and Microsoft's Active Directory compete for the enterprise directory-service business. The scalability and Internet-based technologies required by e-business applications make it difficult for the NOS-based directories to compete in the e-business space while the lack of hooks into enterprisewide file-system-access rights prevents Internet-based directory services from gaining a foothold in the enterprise.
But that picture is changing. Novell's eDirectory has matured and can serve as the directory of choice for intranet, extranet and Internet applications. According to a recent report by Burton Group analyst Mike Neuenschwander, "eDirectory is a strong candidate for most directory projects. [It] has sufficient performance and significant features that make it useful in multiple directory roles." The product's maturity, cross-platform support, scalability and reliability, coupled with the increasing number of applications from Novell and third parties that take advantage of it, have helped place Novell on our list of companies to watch for 2002.
We're seeing additional corporate adoption of Active Directory, primarily as a cost-cutting replacement for Windows domain shops and for companies upgrading to applications that require AD, such as Exchange 2000. We're mystified as to why AD isn't at the heart of Microsoft's Passport system -- it seems a natural fit and having Passport on AD would be a huge showcase for AD as an e-business directory. Microsoft has always been pretty astute at marketing its technology, so we're left wondering if AD is up to the task.
TCP/IP Technologies
You may have noticed there's more vendor support for the next generation of IP -- IPv6. And you may be tempted to think that this will be the year of IPv6. Well, think again. We admire the proactive support for the protocol given by Cisco, Microsoft, Sun Microsystems and others, but we can't suggest wasting too much effort toying with it in the next few years. Yes, ARIN (American Registry for Internet Numbers) is now doling out addresses, but don't expect to have use for IPv6 unless you're a provider with an application that requires a large chunk of addresses. The fact that you can get a Cisco router with IPv6 support means you can transmit IPv6 traffic, but the new code may not be stable and may not get the same performance in ASICs that IPv4 gets. The 128-bit IPv6 addresses take up more address space in memory, which was optimized for IPv4's 32-bit addresses. Finally, if you want off your own network, you'll have to tunnel, which will produce latency hits and add complexity.
Windows Technology
During the next year, Microsoft will struggle to make its .Net strategy a reality. Windows XP is the first OS to have parts of .Net embedded on the client side, and Windows 2002 Server will build the .Net foundation on the server side. Microsoft has hit the nail on the head with .Net: Web services will be the basis for future applications and e-commerce. The revenue generated by Web services over the next few years will play a large part in a company's success or failure.
So what's the biggest roadblock to Microsoft's domination in the Web services arena? It isn't the legion of willing and able developers anxious to take Microsoft's tools to craft distributed applications. And it probably isn't the .Net technology, though we share several of the misgivings about scalability and stability that many of you have. .Net's biggest hurdle will be Microsoft's abysmal security record.
To win the hearts and minds of corporate customers sitting on the fence, Microsoft must convince them that security has been built into .Net from the start, a strategy that has not been apparent in previous Microsoft enterprise products. To attract the hoard of potential customers who are openly hostile about implementing business-critical services based on Microsoft technologies, Microsoft must prove it's seen the light and has the best security story to tell.
Novell Netware
Today's Novell has very little in common with the Novell of a decade ago or five years ago -- or even a year ago. During 2001, Novell spun off one of its most successful technologies -- the Internet Caching System -- along with one of its most successful technologists, Drew Majors. Novell purchased Cambridge Technology Partners (CTP) to add muscle to its consulting arm, kicked CEO Eric Schmidt upstairs and replaced him with CTP's CEO Jack Messman. These changes, while significant, pale in comparison to its recommendation that we test the new directory-enabled portal software using Windows 2000 rather than NetWare! Is this Novell or some alien manifestation?
A number of the Novell faithful who attended Brainshare this year were openly concerned that the new Novell, with its emphasis on consulting and cross-platform Internet services software, wouldn't have the resources necessary to continue developing NetWare. Based on Novell's release of NetWare 6 at the end of 2001, we'd say these folks were right to be concerned--NetWare 6 was late and the integration quality of its various parts left much to be desired.
Yet even in the midst of another year of significant change for Novell, we're still bullish on its technology -- not because we're stubborn (though we are) but because we think Novell has developed a number of important products, including eDirectory, iChain, DirXML, ZENworks, NIMS, Modular Authentication Service and SecureLogin, all of which help solve the problems businesses face today. Novell's products are directory-enabled, cross-platform and most are second or third generation.
Novell no longer equals NetWare, and that's a good thing. Novell's vision is on target even if its execution has been somewhat haphazard. Novell must deliver solid, integrated products based on the One Net vision. If it does that, Novell will continue to be a force in the new Internet economy.
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