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Special Survivor's Guide Issue
F E A T U R E  
MOBILE & WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY

The Survivor's Guide to 2002

  December 17, 2001
  By Dave Molta

Wireless Wide-Area Networks: Facing the Challenge 2002

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Wireless carriers and their suppliers face unprecedented financial challenges. Most of the major wireless carriers have close ties to the broader telecommunications industry, whose traditional inflated margins have been hit hard by rapidly falling prices for long-distance voice services. Competition also has made its way into the cellular voice industry, which has historically provided significant profits to carriers. The availability of at least three competitive offerings in most U.S. markets has resulted in aggressive marketing and lower usage costs as carriers battle to maintain subscription bases, the growth of which is slowing because of market saturation.

If this weren't bad enough, many of the major carriers have invested significant resources in wireless spectrum auctioned by government entities. While auctions may be good news for taxpayers and may represent the fairest approach to spectrum allocation in a market economy, many wonder whether carriers will be able to recover those costs. This dismal financial news may stall deployment of 3G services, but it also may act as a stimulus to deployment as carriers feel pressure to generate additional revenues to pay down their spectrum debts.

Further hindering the development of 3G services is the battle over standards. For now, it's clear that Asian and European countries will be the leaders in 3G services, much as they were with 2G, both because their geographic coverage areas make deployment more cost-effective and because standards are more firmly entrenched. The rollout of GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) offerings in Europe is one example of this, as is the early albeit limited deployment of 3G services in South Korea and Japan.

There is also a cultural element to this market development. At the risk of oversimplifying a complex situation, consumers in Europe and Asia are more willing to pay high prices for innovative wireless services. In the United States, the market is driven more by mobile business applications, which are only beginning to take off.


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