Mobile Devices
We expect 2002 to be a significant year for mobile devices, including data-enabled cell phones and PDAs. With millions of professionals toting cell phones and PDAs in their pockets, the obvious question relates to whether converged devices will emerge as the platform of choice.
This past year, we were teased by intriguing offerings from Kyocera, Nokia and Samsung. Handspring's new Treo should be available in early 2002. Some skeptical analysts observe this trend and shake their heads, doubtful that PDA users will sacrifice functionality and screen real estate for integrated telephony features, and are suspicious that cell-phone users won't relinquish compact size for enhanced PDA-like functionality.
We take a different view. The market for compact mobile phones and full-function PDAs won't disappear, but for many people, a converged device represents genuine value--more functionality, one fewer device.
In the PDA space, the coming year will be critical for manufacturers of devices running Palm OS. Microsoft has finally delivered a credible alternative with the Pocket PC platform, which offers greater performance, better networking and tighter integration with Microsoft desktops. On the other hand, predictions of Palm OS' demise may be premature.
Although significant growth in market share for Pocket PC is a given, Palm still has sufficient critical mass to command respect among both its customer base and, more important, the application-development community. But progress will need to be made in overcoming performance and networking limitations of current Palm OS offerings.
For cell phones, the trend toward smaller size may finally be slowing. There comes a point when small is too small, and we think that time has arrived. Take a close look at the Asian market, and it seems safe to conclude that new systems will sport improved color-display capabilities. For this to be of value, devices will need to be slightly bigger. In addition, we expect a trend toward more sophisticated voice-recognition capabilities in cell phones, which will both facilitate hands-free use and help overcome the limited keyboard input functionality.
We also expect to see significant advances in both peripheral offerings and embedded communication capabilities. Look for integrated Bluetooth capabilities in most new mobile-device offerings. As chipset prices decline and Bluetooth applications mature, a time will soon come when the lack of Bluetooth will be viewed as a significant competitive disadvantage.
Mobile Applications
All the wireless infrastructure in the world isn't of much value if innovative applications don't emerge to leverage the enhanced capabilities. The good news is that you can rest assured that wireless application development will be hot in 2002. The bad news is that it still won't be cheap or easy to engineer value-laden applications within the constraints of existing mobile-device platforms and wireless infrastructure. And even when good applications emerge, deploying them can be a real pain.
As has been the case for years with host-based and client/server applications, enterprises are still struggling with the build-or-buy dilemma for mobile applications. And because most of these applications are so intricately linked to wide-area wireless networking platforms, the complexity level is even higher than that of traditional enterprise applications. Organizations that approach mobile applications development from a real-time, Webcentric viewpoint may be frustrated by inadequate infrastructure. In the short-term at least, you'll need to include data synchronization in your bag of tricks.
Online Special
Fore more on wireless networking this past year, plus a look at how Network Computing breaks down the wireless market, see "The Year that Was".
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In 2002, we'll see healthy markets for both vertical and horizontal mobile applications. The vertical markets have traditionally been the primary focus of mobile developers, and there still is plenty of opportunity in that space. But the biggest growth may come in horizontal applications ranging from messaging to sales-force automation.
Ask yourself a simple question: Is a significant percentage of your organization's employees spending most of their time on the road? If so, there are probably opportunities to improve organizational effectiveness through the deployment of mobile applications. Although this is a challenging prospect, it's getting easier. Mobile-oriented application-service providers are refining their offerings; application-development offerings are improving both in scope and in ease of use; the infrastructure needed to successfully deploy and manage mobile application environments is also rapidly maturing. All that is good news for the mobile-applications market.
Dave Molta is a senior technology editor of Network Computing. He is also an assistant professor in the School of Information Studies at Syracuse University and director of the Center for Emerging Network Technologies. Molta's experience includes 15 years in IT and network management. Send your comments on this article to him at dmolta@nwc.com.
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