In the past year, we have seen great changes in mobile and wireless. Bluetooth survived rumors of its death and is making a comeback in the form of real products. The explosive growth of WLANs (wireless LANs) built around the IEEE 802.11b/WiFi (Wireless Fidelity) standards is one of the year's most exciting tech stories. We've seen the first rollout of 3G (third-generation) services in Japan and 2.5G services in many more locales.
Despite technical and market challenges, fixed-access wireless systems are operational in millions of locations, and the growth potential is enormous. The functionality and variety of mobile devices have some contemplating a future where the PC is no longer the computational device of choice. And mobile applications, both vertical and horizontal, have become more robust, enabled by enhanced back-end and middleware architectures.
So what about 2002? It's likely to be the most significant year yet in the development of mobile and wireless technology.
Wireless PANs
Mention personal-area networks, piconets and scatternets, and most IT managers will regard you with confusion, perhaps pity. Do we really need yet another wireless technology? Yes, according to the champions of Bluetooth. But is there any real demand for PAN technology, or is it a market dreamed up by European wireless nuts?
Bluetooth is the latest poster child for the Gartner Group's famous hype curve, which tracks emerging technologies through various phases of market acceptance. The market bought much of the early Bluetooth hype, then wrote it off as irrelevant. But now that products have advanced past the "shipping beta stage," characteristic of technologies rushed to market too soon, Bluetooth just might make its move in 2002.
While Bluetooth's data rate is a tenth of the 802.11b WLAN rate, you get several key benefits in exchange. First, Bluetooth chips are small and highly integrated, making it easy for manufacturers to embed the technology in devices. Second, Bluetooth is cheap (around $10 per chip in quantity) and getting cheaper (around $4 per chip by the end of 2002). Finally, Bluetooth's power requirements are much more modest than those of 802.11b, making it feasible to use in a range of low-power devices.
Bluetooth's architecture offers key benefits as well. By embedding software into flash memory on the chips, manufacturers can deliver zero-configuration wireless capabilities. Bluetooth devices that support similar software profiles will discover each other when they come within transmission range. Thus, a PDA enabled with Bluetooth and a printer profile will automatically recognize the existence of a Bluetooth-enabled printer as it comes within range of a piconet.
The greatest benefit of using Bluetooth will continue to be cable replacement. A Bluetooth-enabled headset will free users from cabling hassles and improve the usability of devices such as cell phones and MP3 players. The tangle of keyboard, mouse, monitor and printer cables that clutter your work area eventually will go away. But Bluetooth's appeal doesn't stop there; Bluetooth will let mobile-computing devices leverage communications gateways for Internet access.
The biggest obstacle to the success of Bluetooth is market perception and general frustration arising from the overabundance of wireless standards. A smaller problem is the potential for interference from WLANs, portable phones and microwave ovens in the 2.4-GHz band. Although Bluetooth's frequency-hopping technology makes it more tolerant of interference than WiFi devices, one of the biggest boosts for Bluetooth could lie in the success of the 802.11a WLAN standard, which runs in the 5-GHz band. If 802.11a delivers on its promises and attracts a strong following, it may displace 802.11b as the dominant WLAN standard. Bluetooth could inherit the upper hand in the 2.4-GHz band. We don't expect an explosion of Bluetooth activity in 2002 but rather a gradual ramp-up, especially in cell phones and PDAs, that will serve to legitimize a more widespread adoption in coming years.
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