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But today's solutions often involve specialized gateways, middleware or reformatting of content. The higher data rates promised by future cellular networks are tantalizing because for the first time it might be possible to use e-mail, groupware, database access and VPNs (virtual private networks) as they are used over dial-up or DSL types of connections.

By next year, cellular operators will be offering IP packet-data services with rates as high as 144 Kbps, though 56 Kbps will be more typical of downlink speeds. This is in sharp contrast with today's services, which are limited to about 9.6 Kbps. However, the industry is fragmented, with multiple wireless technologies deployed, each with its own data strategy. Understanding how these data services will evolve will let you take better advantage of these developments.

Market Forces

To obtain some fundamental insight into this industry, you should realize there are huge market forces at play that will determine how and when next-generation data services will be deployed. Unfortunately, these forces are not all in alignment. Understanding this interplay will help you make your own predictions. One force driving the broad deployment of new data services is the huge success of wireless voice, leading the industry to view data as a vast new source of potential revenue. Data is also now an integral part of next-generation cellular systems, not just an afterthought. Complementary industry developments, including new handheld platforms and new delivery methods, such as WAP, also help. Finally, the massive consolidation in the wireless industry will make it easier for operators to deploy services over a nationwide if not a global scale.

Other forces are acting in opposition, however. Because of the limited success of wide area systems so far and the unproven business case, as well as an unclear perception of what customers really want from wireless data, operators and vendors are proceeding tentatively. Also, Internet access speeds via wire line (DSL, cable and so on) are being pumped up to a rate where wireless will continue to be slower than wire line for at least the next several years. Finally, the industry is still grappling with multiple wireless standards, leading to confusion and fragmentation. High-speed cellular data will prevail, but it will be a rocky and inconsistent evolution.

The State of Wireless

Let's quickly highlight the key attributes of today's services. First, they are slow. They weren't when they were designed, at the beginning of the 1990s, but today's typical rates of 9.6 Kbps to 14.4 Kbps simply do not stand up to demands of rich Web pages and heavy-duty productivity applications like Microsoft Exchange and Lotus Notes. Second is an emphasis on circuit-switched connections. With data as an afterthought for current digital cellular systems, a dial-up model for data is easier to deploy than a packet-switched architecture. But dial-up means connection delays, an inability to push data to mobile users and having to pay for connect times even when sessions are idle.

Beyond cellular networks, other wireless WANs, such as the Motient network and the BellSouth Wireless Data Network, are deployed. These networks, however, are being repositioned for messaging applications versus general-purpose wireless data.

Today, cellular operators are emphasizing mobile phones with microbrowsers, which is understandable given the limitations of today's networks. You don't need much bandwidth to fill up a six-line display of 12 characters. This kind of platform is useful for some corporate tasks, such as helpdesk functions, remote pricing information and telephone databases, but it constitutes only a small subset of the information that an IT manager might want to make available to mobile workers.

Nevertheless, today's wireless networks can be used quite productively--as long as only small amounts of data are involved. In many instances, customers need to employ wireless middleware solutions that account for the limitations of today's wireless networks. Internet portals are also now targeting this industry by developing mobile content that can be accessed by new microbrowser-equipped cell phones, giving users access to their e-mail; calendar, travel, entertainment and restaurant information; sports results; package tracking; horoscopes; and so on. Despite some of these new consumer-oriented services, wireless networks today are used mostly for messaging applications or in vertical markets (field service, for example). But things are about to change.